World
AI investment lifts goods trade outlook as services trade weakens
The WTO raised its 2026 merchandise trade forecast but cut its services trade outlook amid Middle East disruption.
What happened
Global trade outperformed expectations in the first half of 2026 despite the Middle East conflict. Supply-chain adaptation and strong AI investment supported goods trade, prompting WTO economists to raise their 2026 merchandise trade growth forecast. They lowered the services trade outlook, reflecting greater exposure to the conflict in services and some regions.
Why it matters
Goods exporters benefit from stronger-than-expected trade resilience, while services businesses and exposed regions face a weaker outlook amid ongoing disruption.
Source: WTO News